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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 5/22
Posted By: Bill Calton In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/22 (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 24 May 2011, at 11:10 p.m.
1. Double / Drop
Race is close but we are up. No way the other side if taking next roll if he is still stuck behind our prime. Double is a must. Can White take?
Let’s say 28% opponent is crushed.
7 rolls make the 6-prime (5-2, 4-2, 4-4, 2-2, 5-5).
# more rolls (5-4, 6-6) is almost over.
Not too many gammons, which is good for taker, but are there enough winning chances?
If I don’t crush you immediately, I either play quiet or hit loose – when you basically get one chance to hit back or escape.
Let’s say this happens 24% of the time ( 72% * 1/3 ).
Even then, the game is basically up for grabs, with the opponent only a slight favorite.
If we go nothing roll for each side, the situation detoriates for white.
I assume White needs a real race lead to take this.
I say Double / Drop.
2. We can hit 20/14* when I admit I don’t understand what is happening, but what is the upside of the hit? A bit more than ½ the time he hits you back and then what? You hope to anchor and the game is even? Or he misses you and the game is still about even because blue is totally undeveloped.
On the other hand, what is the downside to the hit? Not too much I guess, since White doesn’t have anything either. But I don’t like it.
Building the board 8/4, 6/4 seems wrong. We are under the gun; Let’s not give White some good rolls for no reason. If white is forced to leave a blot and we hit, so what?
The race is close. Let’s just anchor now and snap into an almost even game for sure. I like 24/20 for the 4. I suppose 13/11 is possible with the deuce since, again, getting hit doesn’t cost much but let’s not mess around. I’ll go 24/20, 6/4.
3. 5 ½ point boards scare me. Even though 3-1, 3-2 and 1-1 don’t cover and 2-2 is a horror show, I still don’t like it. That second blot really scares me. If blue does cover, that blot will almost certainly be scooped up. After the most likely variation, pop out followed by dance, about ½ rolls will then either cover or hit the second checker. And, even if Blue misses and white hits, what then? Blue is favored to reenter and white still has a lot of work to do. And he will have to this work without benefit of the cube, since he can almost never recube. I can’t imagine White can take.
Could Blue be too good? Perhaps, but a point is a point and I am quite happy to see a take. Double / Drop.
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