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OTB?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 25 May 2011, at 4:08 a.m.

In Response To: OTB? (Rod)

...but assuming XG+'s eval that pointing gave up 0.097 and that the drop was 0.300 incorrect then that would yield 0.133, requiring one to be approximately 74% confident of the drop to make pointing equivalent?

Using those evals, I think it's 72.75%, but yes, close enough. However, as I said, even with that, one must grant a lot of assumptions, the most relevant of which (as others have implied or said directly) is that you have to simultaneously be pretty sure that Opp will take the roll after you play D (Down, 13/7 11/7). Simply put, you're laying big odds both that she will pass (in the relevant variations) after your whopper and take after your correct play. It's rare indeed to get that reliable a read on an opponent.

Nack

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