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Rollout and variant

Posted By: Michael Nielsen
Date: Wednesday, 25 May 2011, at 9:42 a.m.

In Response To: -3, -5 cube action (Michael Nielsen)

Clear cube for all practical purposes since lots of donkeys (like me and XG 4-ply for instance) will pass this.

XGR+ and XGR++ were also off in their evaluations thinking this is clear cube and a somewhat closer take.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 168 5 point match pip: 78 score: 2 is Player 1
XGID=----B-DaB--B-B----bbbbdbC-:0:0:-1:D:0:2:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.76% (G:39.11% B:5.50%)	65.95% (G:40.24% B:19.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.24% (G:2.96% B:0.12%)	34.05% (G:2.82% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.878	+1.444
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.749	±0.006 (+0.742..+0.755)
Double/Take:	+0.728 (-0.021)	±0.012 (+0.716..+0.740)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.251)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.1%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		99.9%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

One number less that cracks.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 166 5 point match pip: 78 score: 2 is Player 1
XGID=----B-DaB-B--B----bbbbdbC-:0:0:-1:D:0:2:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.39% (G:39.30% B:5.13%)	68.84% (G:40.86% B:17.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.61% (G:2.36% B:0.08%)	31.16% (G:2.23% B:0.14%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.932	+1.588
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.828 (-0.118)	±0.012 (+0.816..+0.840)
Double/Take:	+0.946	±0.023 (+0.923..+0.968)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.054)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 41 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• -3, -5 cube action
  Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 23 May 2011, at 6:47 p.m.
  • -3, -5 cube action
    ah_clem -- Monday, 23 May 2011, at 7:46 p.m.
    • -3, -5 cube action
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 24 May 2011, at 2:45 p.m.
    • -3, -5 cube action
      ah_clem -- Tuesday, 24 May 2011, at 7:43 p.m.
  • -3, -5 cube action
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 23 May 2011, at 7:55 p.m.
    • -3, -5 cube action
      Stick -- Tuesday, 24 May 2011, at 2:22 a.m.
      • -3, -5 cube action
        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 24 May 2011, at 7:29 a.m.
      • -3, -5 cube action
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 24 May 2011, at 5:15 p.m.
        • -3, -5 cube action
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 24 May 2011, at 5:55 p.m.
        • -3, -5 cube action
          Stick -- Tuesday, 24 May 2011, at 6:52 p.m.
  • -3, -5 cube action
    Udo Moerschbach -- Monday, 23 May 2011, at 8:16 p.m.
    • -3, -5 cube action
      Stick -- Tuesday, 24 May 2011, at 2:18 a.m.
  • -3, -5 cube action
    Turz -- Tuesday, 24 May 2011, at 12:28 p.m.
  • Rollout and variant
    Michael Nielsen -- Wednesday, 25 May 2011, at 9:42 a.m.
    • Variant
      Michael Nielsen -- Wednesday, 25 May 2011, at 10:30 a.m.
    • Rollout and variant
      Stick -- Wednesday, 25 May 2011, at 11:36 a.m.