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Cannot understand XG's opinion *ROLLOUT* explanation wanted

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Wednesday, 25 May 2011, at 2:29 p.m.

In Response To: Cannot understand XG's opinion (Carlo Melzi)

I would have expected the duplication of the 4s called for 20/16 but the bot disagrees--assuming the rollout is correct; note it stopped when JSD > 4 for only the top two plays; I stopped rollout of third play manually.

Will appreciate an explanation of why 20/15 is the superior play.

Thanks.

The score (after 0 games) is: GNUbg 4, You 6 (match to 11 points)

Move number 5: You to play 41

GNUbg71


5X2X1X '2O2X3X ' ' ' ' '

1O2O3O2O2O2O '1O ' ' '2X

You92

Position ID: 32IHBgDttgkAAw Match ID: UQlmAUAAMAAE

• You moves 20/16 8/7

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity -0.077(Money: -0.078)
45.0 3.2 0.1 - 55.0 1.1 0.0
Cubeful equities:
4-ply cubeful prune
1.No double +0.025
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.975
3.Double, take -1.387 -1.412
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (59.2%)

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 20/15 -0.036
43.1 4.3 0.1- 56.9 1.3 0.0 -0.106 -0.036
0.1 0.1 0.0- 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.003 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1098 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888260798 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 72 games)
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
• 2 R 20/16 8/7 -0.056 ( -0.020)
42.4 3.8 0.1- 57.6 1.4 0.0 -0.127 -0.056
0.1 0.1 0.0- 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.003 0.004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1097 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888260798 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 72 games)
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 20/16 3/2 -0.063 ( -0.027)
42.0 4.0 0.1- 58.0 1.4 0.0 -0.135 -0.063
0.3 0.4 0.0- 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.009 0.010
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
160 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888260798 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 72 games)
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R 20/16 2/1 -0.075 ( -0.038)
42.0 3.8 0.0- 58.0 2.0 0.0 -0.141 -0.075
0.3 0.4 0.0- 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.009 0.010
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
160 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888260798 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 72 games)
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5 4 8/4 3/2 -0.074 ( -0.038)
40.9 3.2 0.0 - 59.1 1.0 0.0
4-ply cubeful prune
6 0 8/3 -0.065 ( -0.029)
40.8 2.3 0.0 - 59.2 0.6 0.0
0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
7 0 8/4 2/1 -0.066 ( -0.030)
40.6 3.1 0.0 - 59.4 0.5 0.0
0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
8 0 20/16 5/4 -0.080 ( -0.044)
40.6 6.1 0.0 - 59.4 3.5 0.0
0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
9 0 20/16 4/3 -0.091 ( -0.054)
40.5 5.0 0.0 - 59.5 3.8 0.0
0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
10 0 20/16 6/5 -0.103 ( -0.067)
39.8 5.7 0.0 - 60.2 3.7 0.0
0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
11 0 6/1 -0.115 ( -0.079)
38.6 2.5 0.0 - 61.4 0.7 0.0
0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
12 0 8/7 6/2 -0.122 ( -0.085)
38.4 2.5 0.0 - 61.6 0.8 0.0
0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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