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BGonline.org Forums
5-away 5-away cube decision ROLLOUT
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: 5-away 5-away cube decision ROLLOUT (ah_clem)
Date: Thursday, 26 May 2011, at 12:29 a.m.
This is belated, but here are my thoughts on how to assess this position OTB if you don't have a close reference position memorized.
With nine checkers in the zone, your first inclination should be that the take/pass decision will be pretty sensitive to other features of the position. Try to visualize the main ways that the position might evolve. About half the rolls hit, which is very bad for the defender, who will then have three checkers back with two on the bar. Re-entering against a three-point board shouldn't be too difficult (the attacker has to be somewhat lucky to form more points and keep the defender dancing), but chances are that the anchor will be on the 1pt or 2pt rather than the 4pt. If the attacker has escaped all the back checkers by that time, then the defender will have only an inferior holding game. Even if the attacker doesn't hit, the defender's chances in a holding game aren't good if the attacker has completely escaped.
Thus the defender's chances revolve around the possibility of containing the attacker's rear checkers. This takes quite a bit of judgment, but with a three-point prime with fairly well-placed spares against three checkers back, I would have taken for money. (I might have taken ATS as well, though with less confidence.) Note that the placement of the defender's spares is important. If we move a checker from the defender's midpoint to the defender's 6pt, then I believe that worsens his position. Although it gains 7 pips in the race, which normally is a significant improvement, the resulting formation is awkward for priming purposes because there are too many checkers on the 6pt.
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