OTB I somehow talked myself into passing this due to the fact my spare isn't ready to hop and that he may make a 5 prime and that I often have compromise my forward structure. This is quite an embarrassing decision by me considering that I've spent lots of time lately studying backgames.
There are many reasons why this is a clear take, including the very occasional win going forward when he rolls big doubles and his rear checker is contained. Yes I often crack somewhat but that doesn't mean that I cannot win via a hit later or that I crush my board later.
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| XGID=--a-ACBBB-b-----abbbcBbC--:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:15:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63.28% (G:30.34% B:1.85%) | 63.16% (G:30.58% B:1.93%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36.72% (G:6.98% B:0.32%) | 36.84% (G:7.06% B:0.34%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.532 | +1.081 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.716 | ±0.007 (+0.709..+0.723) |
| Double/Take: | +0.704 (-0.012) | ±0.010 (+0.694..+0.713) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.284) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.0% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 83467239 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 97.6% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 16 hours 34 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.165.beta, MET: Kazaross XG2