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Falafel is 6/5 Favorite In Finals Against Steve Sax

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Saturday, 28 May 2011, at 11:09 a.m.

In Response To: Falafel is 6/5 Favorite In Finals Against Steve Sax (Phil Simborg)

In determining a player's advantage over a less skilled opponent, it does not matter what the PR's are, only the difference in PR between the two players. A player with a 1.5 PR facing an opponent with a 2.5 PR has the same advantage as a player with a 12.5 PR facing an opponent with a 13.5 PR.

General consensus is that Elo is proportional to PR*33. Using the ELO calculator included with extreme gammon:

I am not sure if the finals are best two of three to 9 or 11, so I will calculate both. In a 9 point match the better player would win .5276. If W( odds to win a 9-point match)=.5276 and L(odds to lose a 9-point match) =.4724. Then WS(win the set)= W^2+W^2*L*2=.5413. An 11 point match would make W= .5305 and WS = .5457.

So if there is a 1PR difference between Falafel and Steve, Falalfel is just under a 6 to 5 favorite in a 9-point match set. If the set is to 11 points, Falafel would be almost exactly a 6 to 5 favorite, as Paul's friend stated.

But, if I were a betting man, I would bet that Falafel will not outplay Steve by an average of 1 PR in the final.

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