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Daily Quiz 5/28 - Bets Part II

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Sunday, 29 May 2011, at 10:11 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/28 - Bets Part II (Stick)

1) If white passes this, she'll be about 15.5% to win the match; if she takes it's an automatic redouble and the game is for the match. So, her takepoint is 15.5% and I think she has this here. Blue is four away holding a 2 cube with some gammon chances. If he recubes, those gammons are worthless. I wouldn't cube here, I'd play on for gammon, and be satisfied with a single point win that takes me to 2-away 7-away and 85% MWC. TG/T

2)Blue is ahead in the race but faces an annoying holding game. White has two homeboard blots and her board is only going to get stronger, so I say "pay now" and clear the 18 point. 18/17 18/16

3)Blue may have a take just due to the race numbers since there are many sequences where he snakes past white. White may be too good since blue has no checkers on the bar (yet) or stuck behind a prime, but that seems to be counting chickens before they hatch. I'd be happy to cash as white and be equally pleased when blue takes the cube. D/T

4) 7/4 results in Trice's wave so I'll go for that.

5)Blue is 20/36 to hit the blot here, but it's unclear whether that's enough to win. I'm not sure blue is even a favorite to win here, although this may be one of those weird match scores where it's correct to double at <50% GWC. Doubling neutralizes gammmons, and there's no recube vig for white, so it makes some logical sense to double. But I'm not sure, so I'll hold. The take seems clear. ND/T

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