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Stick vs. Carter--Round 7

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Sunday, 29 May 2011, at 11:44 p.m.

In Response To: Stick vs. Carter--Round 7 (adambulldog)

This looks better than a 3 roll position for White. Blue's double 2's don't save a roll, and he is likely not to save a roll after double 1's. White's doubles are good. Out of all his doubles, only 11 followed by 21 won't save a roll. This makes me think that White's chances a considerably better than in a pure 3 vs. 3 roll position.

If it were last roll then White's takepoint would be [drop - take and lose ]/[take and win - take and lose] = [24-9]/[65-9] = 15/56, or roughly 26.5%

But this is not a last roll position, thus White may get use of his cube. What is his doubling point on a 4cube? He is risking 9 percent to gain 35. doubling point is therefore: 9/44 = 20.5% This means White will be redoubling next roll after most sequinces by Blue.

This shows that White take point is much lower than 26.5% he would need to take on the last roll. His fully live takepoint is [dead take point]*[cash point] = .265*.65= 17% and since he will get use of the cube most of the time I am guessing that the real takepoint is closer to 17% than to 26.5%

Sinse he is considerably better than 21.2% [3 vs 3 roll position], it is obvious that he should take.

D/T

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