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The right way to measure which player played better in a match

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai
Date: Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 8:28 p.m.

In Response To: The right way to measure which player played better in a match (Bob Koca)

"If you use MWC method you will say that the error in the first match was much less important than the error in the second match but in fact they were equally important."

Delightful example, Bob. But I think you are philosophically off the mark.

The error in the first match swings your chances from 55% to 45%. The error in the second match swings it from 100% to 0%. These are not "equally important". They are equally important in hindsight -- but everything is equally important in hindsight. Probability has no meaning in hindsight. What can it mean when the outcome of an event is determined?

How about we play a series of 11 point matches. You get to start 1,0 for each match. But I get to win any match that gets to DMP. Note that your spot comes into play every match, whereas mine doesn't. But I'm still happy happy about the situation.

The "right" way to measure anything is to measure exactly that thing. So if you want to measure ability to win backgammon matches, then look at win/loss rates. Your elo rating is necessarily a better measure than anything that is derived, like MWC lost or PR.

But an elo rating, like backgammon, has a lot of noise. MWC has much less noise. But it is a measure that is dependent on the strength of the analyzing bot.

An error rate is also dependent on the strength of the analyst, but introduces new dependencies. It does not take into account choking at the end of matches. And it also assumes that the EMG transformation is meaningful and consistent.

Messages In This Thread

• The right way to measure which player played better in a match
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 10:59 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 11:29 p.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:56 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:19 p.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:35 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 12:09 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 1:02 a.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 1:57 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 2:30 a.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          sonrik -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:33 a.m.
          • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:08 a.m.
            • purpose of EMG
              dlevy -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 2:09 p.m.
              • purpose of EMG
                Marty Storer -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:11 p.m.
                • purpose of EMG
                  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:13 p.m.
                  • purpose of EMG
                    Marty Storer -- Monday, 6 June 2011, at 10:18 p.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:55 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 3:19 p.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 3:51 p.m.
          • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
            Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:11 p.m.
            • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
              Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:22 p.m.
            • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
              dlevy -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:24 p.m.
              • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:52 p.m.
              • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 6:00 p.m.
                • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                  Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 8:00 p.m.
                  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                    Tom Keith -- Thursday, 2 June 2011, at 11:47 p.m.
                    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 3 June 2011, at 9:14 p.m.
                    • Good answer, thank you! *NM*
                      Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 3 June 2011, at 9:44 p.m.
            • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
              Jeremy Bagai -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 8:28 p.m.
          • t(error)
            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:01 p.m.
            • t(error)
              Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:23 p.m.
  • Follow up abotu stat sig
    eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 11:50 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Seth -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 1:07 a.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Phlegethos -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:15 p.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Stick -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:41 p.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 8:54 p.m.
          • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
            Phlegethos -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 9:56 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 3:08 a.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:02 a.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Henrik Bukkjaer -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 10:18 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 2 June 2011, at 1:52 a.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Henrik Bukkjaer -- Friday, 3 June 2011, at 1:09 a.m.