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Daily Quiz 6/2

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 2 June 2011, at 4:16 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 6/2 (Stick)

1) Making your five point is almost always correct. Is this an exception?

If Blue can escape his runner he'll have a quite viable holding game despite being 20 pips down. Leaving a blot on the 11 gives White a chance to clear the anchor with a tempo hit, and that's goodbye holding game. So making the ten point, or playing 11/8 and slotting the 5 are viable options. But I'm going to go with the 5 point. Exceptions are rare enough that when I'm not sure what to do, making the 5 point is the smart way to bet. 8/5 6/5

2) AtS, Blue just needs to hang on for a single point win. Gammons and gammon losses don't matter (3-away post crawford isn't any better than 4-away post crawford) Running out to the 13 point seems as good as the other options - it puts Blue up by 8 pips, so running is advantageous, plus White has a blot in her home board to attend to plus two blots to clean up. 20/13

3) The score is gammon-go, but I can't for the life of me imagine how to milk a gammon out of this. So, I'll just go for a simple single point win. The obvious play is to make the 12 point and play 8/6 with the remaining deuce. This makes a point 7 points away from the anchor so it should be easy to clear. But why make a point that you have to clear soon? I'll go for 16/8 - if white manages to shake a nine and hit the blot on the 14 I've got a blot to aim at from the bar. Otherwise, I should clear it next turn (24/36 to clear).

4) 20 shakes to win (assuming a hit turns into a win, which is a pretty good approximation). But White can cash with the other 18. Since all misses are cashes, it's equivalent to last roll. Blue is over 50% to win, so double. White is over 25% so take. (match score distorts those percentages a little, but only a little) D/T

5) I like the simple 22/6. This puts blue up 21 pips, escapes and safetys a runner. Maybe making the 5 point is better. The problem with 13/5(2) is that it strips the midpoint and leaves two checkers stuck behind a building prime while white has an advanced anchor. The five isn't nearly as valuable as usual once the opponent has made her four point. So I'm going to call "exception" here and run. 22/16

BTW, is there an ETA for the next set of rollouts / analysis? Thanks.

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