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One back - cube action

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Thursday, 2 June 2011, at 6:10 p.m.

In Response To: One back - cube action (David Rockwell)

I took this position OTB noting the two misplaced checkers on the deuce point. It may have been a take AtS, I haven't checked. For money as presented here, it appears to be a narrow drop. As Neil noted, all the misplays will be made by White. So, taking is a reasonable practical decision.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 52
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EDCB-a--a------bbbbc-Ab--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 77.39% (G: 4.75% B: 0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.61% (G: 3.32% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.75% (G: 4.21% B: 0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.25% (G: 3.30% B: 0.01%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.563
Redouble:+1.130
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.938 (-0.062)
Redouble/Take:+1.023 (+0.023)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96013326
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.934...+0.942)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.007 (+1.016...+1.030)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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