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However...

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Thursday, 2 June 2011, at 6:18 p.m.

In Response To: RO above *NM* (David Rockwell)

I didn't appreciate the difference between two checkers out of play on the deuce and two checkers out of play on the ace. Blue wins a huge extra 6% of the time when White's got the ace instead of the deuce. White does not have a proper double. Despite the fact that all immediate sequences are identical, White's later difficulties in rolling the prime home make the difference. He will need to make three more points to crush all resistance rather than two.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 112
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 52
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EDCB-a--a------bbbbc-A-b-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 71.26% (G: 3.38% B: 0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.74% (G: 3.84% B: 0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.39% (G: 3.23% B: 0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.61% (G: 3.75% B: 0.01%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.421
Redouble:+0.846
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.748
Redouble/Take:+0.698 (-0.050)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.252)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96013326
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.007 (+0.742...+0.755)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.007 (+0.691...+0.705)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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