BGonline.org Forums

The right way to measure which player played better in a match

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Friday, 3 June 2011, at 1:09 a.m.

In Response To: The right way to measure which player played better in a match (Timothy Chow)

>> To summarize, if you show me just one match and you ask me who outplayed whom in this particular match and by how much, I would use MWC as the metric. If on the other hand you ask me which player is more likely to be the stronger player in general, then I would look at PR's measured in EMG.

Again, I agree - this must be the way to look at the numbers...

BUT: Beneath your conclusion lies an assumption that a player's errors are distributed randomly in a match. That's not necessarily true. You could have a player who errs early/late in a match, etc. Take a slow player playing a clocked match. He might get you an error rate of 5 on average. But typically, this would be 4 in the early games (where he can spend plenty of time), and then 6-7-8 in the late games, where he's under time pressure, and don't have enough time to do the needed pip-counts, etc. He'd be at a great disadvantage vs. a faster player who can play the same pace throughout the game with a constant error rate of 5. The slow player would err when it's more costly. Often loosing a lot of MWC.

A nervous player could be another example. When the cube goes 4, his PR goes sky-high! And even more realistic would be players who starts to err on their cube dicisions, once the cube goes up. Eg. they double just a tad later when it's a 4-ball lying in their drawer - they want to be sure before turning it to 8. Missing doubles at a certain PR-price, is much more costly on 4-cubes then initial ones. Except for when looking at the PR. And conservative takers, who drop maybe a little too much when the stuff goes volatile - the risk averse players - will often tend to exhibit that behavior more when the price goes up. Costing even more MWC than the PR would suggest.

These are examples of error-types that will give an incorrect PR even in the long run because their MWC losses comes at certain patterns which PR by itøs nature will polish out....

Messages In This Thread

• The right way to measure which player played better in a match
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 10:59 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 11:29 p.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:56 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:19 p.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:35 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 12:09 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 1:02 a.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 1:57 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 2:30 a.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          sonrik -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:33 a.m.
          • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:08 a.m.
            • purpose of EMG
              dlevy -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 2:09 p.m.
              • purpose of EMG
                Marty Storer -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:11 p.m.
                • purpose of EMG
                  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:13 p.m.
                  • purpose of EMG
                    Marty Storer -- Monday, 6 June 2011, at 10:18 p.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:55 a.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 3:19 p.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 3:51 p.m.
          • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
            Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:11 p.m.
            • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
              Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:22 p.m.
            • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
              dlevy -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:24 p.m.
              • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:52 p.m.
              • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 6:00 p.m.
                • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                  Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 8:00 p.m.
                  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                    Tom Keith -- Thursday, 2 June 2011, at 11:47 p.m.
                    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
                      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 3 June 2011, at 9:14 p.m.
                    • Good answer, thank you! *NM*
                      Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 3 June 2011, at 9:44 p.m.
            • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
              Jeremy Bagai -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 8:28 p.m.
          • t(error)
            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:01 p.m.
            • t(error)
              Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 5:23 p.m.
  • Follow up abotu stat sig
    eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 11:50 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Seth -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 1:07 a.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Phlegethos -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:15 p.m.
      • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
        Stick -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 7:41 p.m.
        • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
          eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 8:54 p.m.
          • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
            Phlegethos -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 9:56 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 3:08 a.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 4:02 a.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Henrik Bukkjaer -- Wednesday, 1 June 2011, at 10:18 p.m.
  • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 2 June 2011, at 1:52 a.m.
    • The right way to measure which player played better in a match
      Henrik Bukkjaer -- Friday, 3 June 2011, at 1:09 a.m.