OTB (well on GammonSite) Abby thought a bit and didn't make the bar pt which certainly seemed to be the reflexive play.However, the reflexive play vs backgames is often worng. Making the bar pt can work out but it isn't that likely to cause me to crash badly and clearing the bar pt vs 32 and 42 and even 52 games can be very painful. 12/6 seems best and then most 5's are OK (she played 8/3). The problem with the overplay 12/7 15/9 is that it seems to be possible to lose going forward and that the 9 pt is not that likely to be covered and even if it is, it won't be held for that long usually. However, many plays are close.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 12/6 8/3 | eq: +0.1031 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.15% (G:45.09% B:8.85%)
44.85% (G:6.79% B:0.35%) | Conf.: ±0.0024 (+0.1006...+0.1055) - [99.6%]
Duration: 34 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/8 12/6 | eq: +0.0985 (-0.0046) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.92% (G:44.30% B:8.35%)
45.08% (G:6.82% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ±0.0024 (+0.0961...+0.1008) - [0.4%]
Duration: 34 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 15/10 12/6 | eq: +0.0932 (-0.0099) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.66% (G:43.62% B:8.29%)
45.34% (G:7.62% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ±0.0023 (+0.0909...+0.0954) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/7 12/7 | eq: +0.0920 (-0.0111) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.60% (G:44.34% B:7.96%)
45.40% (G:7.41% B:0.31%) | Conf.: ±0.0024 (+0.0896...+0.0943) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 15/9 8/3 | eq: +0.0753 (-0.0278) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.77% (G:43.45% B:8.02%)
46.23% (G:8.10% B:0.42%) | Conf.: ±0.0024 (+0.0729...+0.0777) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 15/9 12/7 | eq: +0.0708 (-0.0322) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.54% (G:42.43% B:7.29%)
46.46% (G:8.67% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ±0.0023 (+0.0685...+0.0732) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 33 seconds |
|
| |
1 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83467239
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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