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22 to play

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Thursday, 9 June 2011, at 1:42 p.m.

In Response To: 22 to play (Ian Shaw)

It gains a roll in a gammon race that we are an underdog to win, but that is by no means lost. Looks to me to be worth more than 5%, more like 10+%. I think your 75% estimate after a hit is reasonable (probably a bit less, but also may leave repeating shots, so using 75% and ignoring future shots looks OK). So I get that we risk about 4.5% wins, and that we'd win an additional 10+% gammons, so I'd go for it.

Messages In This Thread

• 22 to play
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 9 June 2011, at 1:07 a.m.
  • 22 to play
    BenF -- Thursday, 9 June 2011, at 2:28 a.m.
  • 22 to play
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 9 June 2011, at 4:34 a.m.
    • 22 to play
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 9 June 2011, at 7:21 a.m.
    • 22 to play
      Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 9 June 2011, at 12:40 p.m.
      • 22 to play
        Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 9 June 2011, at 1:42 p.m.
  • 22 to play
    mick dyett -- Thursday, 9 June 2011, at 9:34 a.m.
  • Where this problem came from
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 10 June 2011, at 3:16 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Rollouts R' Us -- Friday, 10 June 2011, at 5:17 a.m.