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Rollout

Posted By: Rollouts R' Us
Date: Friday, 10 June 2011, at 8:02 a.m.

In Response To: Doubling from the bar (BenF)

  • Double/Pass gives us 4 away 4 away for 50% match equity
  • Double/Take/Lose gives us 4 away 3 away for 43% match equity
  • Double/Take/Win gives us 2 away 5 away for 75% match equity

We are risking 7% to gain 25% so risk/(risk+gain) yields 7/(7+25) or 7/32 = 22% as our raw take point. The recube vig is pretty standard since the take point on a 4 cube is ~25%. This should lower our live cube take point to ~19%.

My opponent's gammon value on a 2 cube is .77 and my own is .81. If we were to guesstimate a 20% difference in gammons here, like a 30/10 split, then our fully adjusted take point would be ~34%.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 137
7 point match
pip: 134
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBBBA---dB---d-cb---aB:0:0:1:00:2:3:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.94% (G:27.61% B:1.02%) 69.10% (G:29.61% B:1.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.06% (G:9.73% B:0.18%) 30.90% (G:11.15% B:0.45%)
Cubeless Equities +0.531 +1.262
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.800 (-0.200)±0.029 (+0.771..+0.830)
Double/Take:+1.104 (+0.104)±0.048 (+1.056..+1.152)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
133 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91592453
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes

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