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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 6/10 - Hickey v. Sticky
Posted By: Bill Calton In Response To: Daily Quiz 6/10 - Hickey v. Sticky (Daily Quiz)
Date: Saturday, 11 June 2011, at 2:33 p.m.
1. “Never leave the anchor” argues stay put. On the other hand … You are up in race, have the better board, and she has a blot - points towards running.
Looking at the alternatives, No way I play safe with 11/2. This completely abandons the outfield, and allows White to get stronger when you are likely to be squeezed off the anchor later anyway. Note two bigs allows White to jump safely into the outfield.
Stalling with 6/1, 5/1 makes a 5-point board but I don’t like it. White can play safely for a turn or two and you will be running soon anyway. Let’s just do it now. Mary won’t hesitate to hit, 5 point board or not, when you either perform or die.
So I say pop out, 22/13. In addition to above factors, note you may get a couple extras like 3-1 and 3-3 to attack a straggler on your 3-point should you get hit outside.
2. I don’t trust this one. Even though the attack is not ideal, you have to respect 10 in the zone already. With 2’s, 3’s and 6’s to hit, most likely Blue is shaking next turn with two on the rack and a third blot still floating out there. You are down in the race, and praying to establish a shitty holding game with no development. I say Double / Drop
3. My gut says this one is probably close. If White gets closed out, I’ll put her Win chances at 10 or 11% ( I don’t like that 3-point gap). There is a decent chance this won’t happen, so how often can White win by entering with a quick deuce? Blue’s attack is not ideal, considering the burnt checker on the ace and the lame builder on the 3 point. But, Mary urgently needs that deuce. Dance even two times, and Blue may be able to just win a clean race without hitting. So most of Mary’s win chances occur when Mary rolls an immediate deuce. So I guess she needs to win about 1/3+ of the games where she rolls an immediate two to justify a take. Can she do that? Maybe, but I still don’t trust it. With #2 and #3, I am seeing a pattern here that I may tend to overestimate the stronger side’s chances … (like a slice in golf or something) … Nevertheless, I drop. Double / Drop.
4. The stack on the midpoint makes me want to gag, but you can’t prime and the 5-point will come in handy down the line. 24/21(2), 8/5(2). Unstack the midpoint next roll, even if you must leave direct shot.
5. Up in the race, better board, and some small threats … perhaps this is a small double but I roll on. No Double / Take.
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