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Confidence

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Monday, 13 June 2011, at 12:30 p.m.

In Response To: Confidence (Timothy Chow)

Tim said: 2. Confidence refers to the confidence you have in rejecting the hypothesis that the play is just as good as the top play. It doesn't give you any "confidence" in the value of the equity or equity difference. That is, you might be tempted to say, "I'm 99% confident this is a whopper." But 99% confidence as reported by the JSD doesn't allow you to draw this conclusion, because "whopper" is a quantitative estimate of the equity difference.

Questions:

So, when we reach a given JSD between two plays that provides a X% confidence level, can we say that "I am X% confident that the top play is better than the other play?"

Or is it, "I am X% confident that there is a difference between the top play and the other play"?

What can we say then about the equity difference between plays, for example, of 0.001 versus 0.100? Putting it another way, how can we "confidently" (with a layman's sense of certainty) identify a whopper?

In my experience, when the equity difference is very small, it takes a hell of large number of trials for the JSD to reach anything close to 3 (and I never get there because my computers are slow and I have a finite amount of time).

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