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Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 14 June 2011, at 12:13 a.m.

In Response To: Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong (Carlo Melzi)

Here's how I usually approach such plays.

1. Count the minimum number of pips for the underdog to bear off a checker. Here it's 27 pips to bear in to the 6pt and 1 pip to bear off a checker, for a total of 28 pips.

2. Divide by 8 to get the approximate number of rolls to bear off. We get 4.5 in this case.

3. Compare this to the approximate number of rolls for the favorite to bear off, after the aggressive bearoff play. Here it's about 6 rolls.

4. If it's close then the aggressive play is probably right. Otherwise not. Here, we'd have to bear 11 checkers off in 4 rolls to win a gammon if our opponent rolls normally. That is not close so I would play safe.

Messages In This Thread

• Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
  Carlo Melzi -- Monday, 13 June 2011, at 5:11 p.m.
  • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 13 June 2011, at 5:27 p.m.
  • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
    mtuhtan -- Monday, 13 June 2011, at 5:29 p.m.
  • Break-even Reference Position
    Paul Weaver -- Monday, 13 June 2011, at 7:10 p.m.
  • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
    Max Levenstein -- Monday, 13 June 2011, at 9:06 p.m.
    • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 14 June 2011, at 5:14 a.m.
      • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 15 June 2011, at 3:05 p.m.
        • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
          Stick -- Wednesday, 15 June 2011, at 3:50 p.m.
          • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
            Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 15 June 2011, at 4:55 p.m.
            • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
              Stick -- Wednesday, 15 June 2011, at 5:05 p.m.
          • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
            neilkaz -- Wednesday, 15 June 2011, at 5:00 p.m.
  • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 14 June 2011, at 12:13 a.m.
    • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
      higonefive -- Tuesday, 14 June 2011, at 3:06 a.m.
    • Standard bearoff play but still got it wrong
      Dave Ranson -- Tuesday, 14 June 2011, at 2:19 p.m.