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BGonline.org Forums
How big fav you need to be to beat GE rake?
Posted By: Kevin Whyte In Response To: How big fav you need to be to beat GE rake? (rew)
Date: Thursday, 16 June 2011, at 7:00 a.m.
Let's pretend each point is $1000 to make things work evenly (of course it doesn't matter). You'll win $951 for each point you win and lose $1000 each time you lose. That means you break even if you win 1000 points for every 951 you lose, or, as a fraction, you need to win 1000/1951 points, which is (approximately) 51.2557663%. How many points/game that works out to be depends on the gammon rate and exactly how the players handle the cube.
Given how many games it takes before win rates can be calculated in any reasonable statistical sense, this means roughly that you do need to be clearly better than your opponents but that if you can be can be sure you're better then you are probably better by enough. For example, if you have a 52% to 48% edge you are still nearly 30% likely to have lost more games than you've won after 100 games, so it's unlikely you'll play enough games against any one opponent to be sure you're better unless your advantage is considerably more than needed to beat the rake.
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