I'll further this rollout tonight but since I suspect the numbers to stay in the same ballpark I will post it now. It seems it's a small error to not double you out now, which I can live with. I prefer taking a roll in these situations knowing that in almost every variation I have a cash even if you do come in. One has to be careful to reanalyze the position before each subsequent roll and before I roll here I see the only problems that can occur. First of all I have to be careful with what rolls I attack on the ace point with. After that my man in your inner board is a 'problem' area. I don't want to hit loose on the ace and have my other man still in your inner board, getting whacked would then cause me to have two men back and I wouldn't even have a double I imagine. Even after seeing the rollout I'd still play on in this position, I don't see enough that can immediately go wrong and I think I'll know when to cash. [if you come in on the ace point with like a 2-1 for eg I'd cube you out]
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| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| Cube action equity | |||
| Rollout | Money equity: | 0.803 | |
| 1.0% 29.2% 77.5% 22.5% 4.6% 0.3% | |||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.803 ±0.020, - live cube no double: 0.977 ±0.030, - live cube double take: 1.419 ±0.054. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 9889 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database. | |||
| Evaluations | |||
| 1. | Double, pass | 1.000 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.984 | (-0.016) |
| 3. | Double, take | 1.448 | (+0.448) |
| Proper cube action: Double, pass | |||
| Live cube | |||
| 1. | Double, pass | 1.000 | |
| 2. | No double | 0.977 | (-0.023) |
| 3. | Double, take | 1.419 | (+0.419) |
| Proper cube action: Double, pass | |||