Agreed that winning chances is not your focus here. Isn't the idea of counting checkers in the zone to help get a feel for whether you'll be able to successfully carry out a blitz? (Which may not be related to winning chances.)
Exactly. Consider the four positions below (the first two of which were presented by Stick). With Blue on roll, his equity of each position, according to Snowie eval, is shown in blue.
|
| ||||||||||||||||
|
| ||||||||||||||||
Pos1 and Pos3 are also the same (as each other) except for ownership of the 11pt and 10pt. However, Pos1 has only NINE checkers in the zone (because the 11pt checkers, which don't bear on the open 4pt, are not part of the count), while Pos3 has ELEVEN checkers in the zone. The equity of Pos3 is therefore much higher (.946 vs .809).
Next, consider Pos3 vs Pos4. In both cases, there are eleven checkers in the zone, but Pos3's equity is much higher (.946 vs .828). Why? Because the 5pt is much more valuable than the 4pt (common knowledge).
Having affirmed that the 5pt is much more valuable than the 4pt, consider Pos1 vs Pos2. Despite owning the weaker 4pt, Pos2's equity is higher (.828 vs .809)! Why? Because there are eleven checkers in the zone instead of only nine.
All this helps illustrate that the zone concept is worthwhile, and that it makes good sense to NOT count the 11pt checkers as in the zone in Pos1.
Nack