I agree it is good to have checkers bearing on unmade points. But this is true in priming games just as much as in blitzing games.
I agree with your second sentence, too.
Maybe you use the concept of the "zone" differently than I do. I'm interested in assessing blitz chances.
Me, too, Tom -- and that's a very good point. But either the zone is a useful concept in discussing a particular position or it is not. (Either it has a blitzy element or it does not.) To the degree that it is, the question is: which checkers should be counted?
In a sophisticated model, one would want to count every checker that can still participate in closing inside points. Even checkers on the 24pt can eventually be part of a blitz, though they would get a small fractional value. The midpoint checkers, which are closer to the action, would get a higher partial value, but not nearly as high as checkers that are in direct range (within 6 pips of) an inside point. Checkers on the 11pt when the 5pt is already made are not in direct range but they are even closer to the action than the midpoint, and would therefore get a still higher partial value. The checkers with clearly the most value would be those that directly bear on as many inside points as possible (typically the checkers on the 6pt, and on the 8pt when the 1pt is already made).
However, we are discussing a basic model: one in which a checker is counted a checker as 1 or 0. For a basic model, I believe it is useful to acknowledge that there is a substantial dropoff when comparing checkers that are within direct range (within 6 pips of) an unmade inside point, to those that are not.
I have modified Stick's first position, which is also the first position here, to position "C" below, so that it is more obviously blitzish. It is the middle position of a series, the only variable being Blue's 15pt, which is replaced by his 13pt, 11pt, 9pt and finally his 7pt. Equities (Snowie evals) are included in blue typeface in the captions. Below the last diagram is a summary.
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| Position A: Eleven (checkers) in the zone 1.093 | |
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| Position B: Eleven in the zone 1.117 | |
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| Position C: Eleven in the zone 1.157 | |
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| Position D: Thirteen in the zone 1.304 | |
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| Position E: Thirteen in the zone 1.333 | |
- Position A (15pt) 1.093
Position B (13pt) 1.117 (.024)
Position C (11pt) 1.157 (.040)
Position D ..(9pt) 1.304 (.157)
Position E ..(7pt) 1.333 (.029)
Note the big jump in value that occurs when the 11pt checkers, which are not in the zone (as I define it), are brought into the zone.
Hope that helps.
Nack