Trivial take by my methods as follows:
1) I know that 8 on the ace pt vs 001112 (from the ace pt out and totalling 24 pips) is the point of last take for 5 checkers. Here 002210 is only slightly worse.
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| XGID=-H-----------------baaa---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.826% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 74.772% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.174% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 25.228% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.4965 | +0.9909 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.7362 (-0.1850) | ±0.0003 (+0.7359..+0.7365) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.9212 | ±0.0008 (+0.9204..+0.9220) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0788) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 83467239 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1.3 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.168.beta
2) White's position is clearly worse than 8 on the ace pt so this is a trivial take.3) Now for the hard part..is White's position worse by enough to make the recube incorrect? Noting that the recube is correct by lots here, I think it is probably still correct since White's EPC can't be much worse than 1 or more likely 1.5 pips added to 8 on the ace pt.
Ohh... how long ago did I know about my reference position? Almost 30 years ago !! I rolled it out 500 times and it came out a .95 take and it also fit my math and extrapolation of math and RO's for 3 roll speed boards vs pips when considering 2 roll speed boards.
But WTF !! What a dufus I was !! ROFL..I had written a simple (Fortran 77) program for 1 checker races and knew enough from discussions with Danny Kleinmen that they slightly overestimated the trailer's chances due to wastage. I'd even approximated recube effects by settling. Net result was I knew 100 pips vs 112 was a take and vs 113 a pass which was nice since most "pros" then took with 100 vs 115. (Insert 10000000 smilies in line at BK)
Anyhow..HTF difficult would it have been for me to change a few lines of code for speed board doubles where any double works?!... well with age comes wisdom and anyhow about 7 years later I had a real good race program.
.. neilkaz ..