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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 19 December 2006, at 7:00 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Monday Dec. 18th (Stick)

To hit or not to hit, that is the question. I think you have to hit now, if you don't I'll play my turn, safety my blot, and then it'll be your turn to break and leave me shots. After hitting continuing to the 9 is clearly better as there's the duplication of sixes and the extra covers/hitter aimed at your own 3 pt.


Match to 25, White leads 6 to 2
107
122
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
* 1 R 13/12*/9 -0.158
0.4% 12.9% 43.9% 56.1% 14.0% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: -0.147
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.133 ±0.019, - live cube: -0.147 ±0.036. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 19531 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
2 R 13/10 13/12* -0.206 (-0.048)
0.5% 10.9% 42.4% 57.6% 12.8% 0.4%
Live cube rollout: -0.218
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.170 ±0.020, - live cube: -0.218 ±0.041. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 15438 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
3 R 6/3 4/3 -0.244 (-0.086)
0.3% 8.1% 42.1% 57.9% 10.1% 0.3%
Live cube rollout: -0.241
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.178 ±0.022, - live cube: -0.241 ±0.040. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 16478 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.

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