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Bray's quote

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Wednesday, 22 June 2011, at 4:51 p.m.

In Response To: Bray's quote (Tom Keith)

It must make a heck of a difference how the numbers are calculated.

"of the games played to a conclusion" vs. "had the games been played to a conclusion", matchplay (play according to score and cube) vs. money play (Jacoby?), etc.

Consider the break down into: () ended with a drop () single wins () gammon wins () backgammon wins

It would surprise me, if the breakdown of games within the first category (had they been played to a conclusion) would be similar to that between the other categories?

And what do we need these rates for? That must be important to know in order to figure out how to calculate it!

Anyway: All match-equity tables are more or less a readout of gammon and backgammon values at different scores (except for the skewed ones in Jacobs' book). It should be possible to make a program / an Excel sheet into which you could feed a match equity table and then "reverse" it and get the gammon and backgammon rates? I think the old MET program could be very useful to play around with and see the effects of altered rates (even though it cannot take into account certain matchscores where the player will sacrifice game chances to improve gammon chances if I recall correctly).

Messages In This Thread

• Gammons/Backgammons
  Seth -- Monday, 20 June 2011, at 1:19 p.m.
  • Gammons/Backgammons
    Tom Keith -- Monday, 20 June 2011, at 3:31 p.m.
    • Gammons/Backgammons
      eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 20 June 2011, at 4:09 p.m.
      • Gammons/Backgammons
        Chris Bray -- Wednesday, 22 June 2011, at 12:24 p.m.
        • Gammons/Backgammons
          Seth -- Wednesday, 22 June 2011, at 1:30 p.m.
  • Gammons/Backgammons
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 June 2011, at 3:56 p.m.
    • Gammons/Backgammons
      Michael Petch -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 6:27 p.m.
  • some real data (w/cube)
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 20 June 2011, at 4:09 p.m.
  • Gammons/Backgammons
    Ray Kershaw -- Monday, 20 June 2011, at 7:22 p.m.
    • Gammons/Backgammons
      Seth -- Monday, 20 June 2011, at 9:46 p.m.
      • Gammons/Backgammons
        Frank Berger -- Monday, 20 June 2011, at 9:50 p.m.
        • Gammons/Backgammons
          Seth -- Tuesday, 21 June 2011, at 2:09 p.m.
      • Gammons/Backgammons
        Ray Kershaw -- Tuesday, 21 June 2011, at 7:16 a.m.
        • Gammons/Backgammons
          Seth -- Tuesday, 21 June 2011, at 2:07 p.m.
          • Gammons/Backgammons
            Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 21 June 2011, at 4:12 p.m.
          • Bray's quote
            Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 21 June 2011, at 4:27 p.m.
            • Bray's quote
              Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 21 June 2011, at 7:56 p.m.
              • Bray's quote
                Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 21 June 2011, at 10:12 p.m.
                • Bray's quote
                  Ray Kershaw -- Tuesday, 21 June 2011, at 10:41 p.m.
                • Bray's quote
                  Henrik Bukkjaer -- Wednesday, 22 June 2011, at 4:51 p.m.
          • Gammons/Backgammons
            Ray Kershaw -- Tuesday, 21 June 2011, at 5:01 p.m.