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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 6/22
Posted By: Bill Calton In Response To: Daily Quiz 6/22 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 8:48 p.m.
1. Making the 5-point, 13/5(2) is an obvious candidate. While White must break the midpoint to hit, he would be happy to do so with any 3. Additionally, White will be in the game with any 6, and double 4 is nice too. That’s quite a few good rolls for White (I count 27), maybe too many. Instead we could try 15/7*, 13/9(2) when I count 13 return hits, plus 5-4 is pretty decent. We are outboarded and way up in the race, so we don’t want to get hit, and the shot count is probably important here. By striking first, we put pressure on White to respond with a good number. After hitting, I like our checker distribution better than after making the 5-point. Assuming we get away with it, we are in position to make good points next turn with a looming cube in hand. Also, if we do get hit the game isn’t over. On the other hand, the 5-point is the 5-point and that is hard to pass up. Still, I’ll go for the other play, 15/7*, 13/9(2).
2. Yikes, can we reroll? We can play immediate safe with 7/1, 6/1 but this buries two more checkers. With a 4-point gap and almost no flexibility, this seems hopeless for the future. I say your best bet is to put the blot in his F-A-C-E. I like 9/4, 7/1. If we do get hit, we could still win since white will have to escape two checkers from behind our 5-prime. And if we don’t get hit, we have a good chance of filling in the 4-gap and coming home safe. 9/4, 7/1.
3. Question -- Should we have recubed before the roll? The 5-point is the game right now, so I think you gotta forget the blot count and go balls to the wall for the closeout. 15/9, 13/10 looks like the best way to attack. Assuming he dances, we get the best diversification this way. 2’s step up and we got 3’s, 4’s and 5’s directly aiming at the 5-point hole. If he comes in with a 5, 5-3 hit is duplicated. 5-5 crushes us but on the other hits (5-3, 5-4, 5-1, 5-6) we get significant return shots from the bar. I play 15/9, 13/10.
4. 3rd roll and already confused. Up in the race, race? If we run 24/15 how likely is this to work? More than half the rolls hit (all 1’s and 3’s plus 6-5) when we are unhappy. And what if we get away with it? We still need to clean up that blot and our game is completely undeveloped. I guess I would go with 13/4*. The number of hitters is actually less than running while the upside is better when it works. A minor point in favor of hitting may be how his entering sixes play from the bar. I unstack and hit, 13/4*
5. 11/4* certainly is tempting. After 9 dances we cash. And non-hit entering ace’s and 3’s increase our win chances. On the other hand, we leave 13 hitters from the bar, all of which play OK. If he hits and we never move again, there is definitely some gammon danger. Big risk, big reward…. 13 hitters isn’t that many, so perhaps the hit is correct?
Do we need to panic now and hit? If we play safe 13/6, even though behind we might still win the race, or possibly point on him, pick and pass next roll if he can’t get out. Only 6-4, 6-6, 5-5 are immediate winners. 6-2 and 5-3 are good but we at least get a single shot at him while other numbers that partially escape give us a double shot. Sometimes taking no risk is the biggest risk of all.
Holding the cube, do we hit now so we can use the cube to cash? Or holding the cube, do we play wimpy and hope to creep up to an efficient cube later? I admit to not understanding this position either. Confused, I play 13/6.
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