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DMP endgame play

Posted By: Mochy
Date: Saturday, 25 June 2011, at 4:02 a.m.

In Response To: DMP endgame play (misja)

Quite recently I studied this kind of position.

So I rememberd this is about 9% winning chance.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 6
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BBCBBB-------------cB-:1:1:1:15:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 15

1.XG Roller++24/18eq: -1.664
Player:
Opponent:		9.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.74% (G:69.45% B:18.77%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.169.beta

Surely I should be worse off in actual position because I have closeout and no(or very tiny) chance to pick second checker. My estimaiton with closeout is 6.5%.

I also know this is about 17.5%. This should be common knowledge.




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 27
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 63
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCCB-----A-----------b-:1:1:1:15:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 15

1.Rollout112/6eq: -0.591
Player:
Opponent:		17.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
82.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.594...-0.589) - [%1%]
Duration: 31 minutes 25 seconds
1 10229 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 48584169
Cubeless
Moves: 5-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.169.beta

In actual position white has a gap on ace point so I would guesstimate blue has 19.5% winning chance.

We need to compare the sequence with immediate ace (10 rolls), because the rest has very little impact to winning chance.

1)If you keep an anchor and he rolls an ace, then you will have about 6.5%.
2)If you run from an anchor and he rolls an ace, then you have 30% chance to hit then tad less than 19.5% chance to win from there. 30%*19%=5.7%

1) is bigger than 2) and 1) has a bonus for 11.

I might be off in some of my guesstimation, but still quite confident keeping an anchor should be better than running.

Quite an interesting theme anyway! So we should keep an anchor against four on a deuce point, at double match point.

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