I extract the data for errors out of the 1000 games I use for testing XG2 for 3-ply. All the RO are 1296 3-ply RO made using V2.
For XGR++ i've only the data from 400 games so far, i will have the full 1000 by Monday.
The data is cumulative: for instance for 3-ply Checker play: it made 387 errors greater than 0.020, 91 of which are greater than 0.040 and 5 of them are blunders (>0.080). So only (!?) 296 errors were between 0.020 and 0.040.
| Error | 3-ply | game per error (2000 games) | XGR++ | game per error (800 games) |
| Checker play | more than 0.080 | 5 | 400.0 | 0 | NA | more than 0.040 | 91 | 22.0 | 3 | 266.7 | more than 0.020 | 387 | 5.2 | 44 | 18.2 | more than 0.010 | 893 | 2.2 | 127 | 6.3 | more than 0.005 | 1470 | 1.4 | 244 | 3.3 | more than 0.001 | 2357 | 0.8 | 504 | 1.6 |
| Doubling | more than 0.080 | 4 | 500.0 | 0 | NA | more than 0.040 | 23 | 87.0 | 0 | NA | more than 0.020 | 73 | 27.4 | 6 | 133.3 | more than 0.010 | 108 | 18.5 | 15 | 53.3 | more than 0.005 | 129 | 15.5 | 22 | 36.4 | more than 0.001 | 150 | 13.3 | 28 | 28.6 |
| Taking | more than 0.080 | 8 | 250.0 | 0 | NA | more than 0.040 | 24 | 83.3 | 4 | 200.0 | more than 0.020 | 45 | 44.4 | 7 | 114.3 | more than 0.010 | 52 | 38.5 | 8 | 100.0 | more than 0.005 | 54 | 37.0 | 8 | 100.0 | more than 0.001 | 58 | 34.5 | 9 | 88.9 |
For reference there are over the 1000 games: 30360 Checker player decisions and 5536 cube decision.
Over the 800 games checked so far for XGR++ there are 12056 Check play and 2240 Cube actions.
here is the biggest mistake of XGR++
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| XGID=abaBB-E-AA--bB---cAcc---A-:0:0:1:00:108:147:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.69% (G:34.90% B:5.25%) | 64.56% (G:34.47% B:5.67%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.31% (G:7.24% B:0.43%) | 35.44% (G:7.14% B:0.42%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.619 | +1.234 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.777 (-0.156) | ±0.013 (+0.764..+0.789) |
| Double/Take: | +0.932 | ±0.022 (+0.910..+0.954) |
| * Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.068) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Using version 1 | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 12 minutes 46 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.170.beta
here it is drops thinking the position after DT is 1.008