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BGonline.org Forums
Coming home 2
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Coming home 2 (maxim)
Date: Monday, 27 June 2011, at 5:18 p.m.
This is tricky. Obviously we bring one checker in from the 11pt and then the question is whether to bring in the 11pt blot or the 7pt blot. If we bring in the 7pt blot, which rolls fail to bring in the 11pt blot next time? 11 21 31 43, for a total of 7 rolls (assuming White doesn't roll 44). White will enter about 1/3 of the time and hit a direct shot about 1/3 of the time. If we bring in the 11pt blot then only 33 fails to bring the other checker in. Against this, leaving the blot on the 7pt obviously gets hit on an immediately 43. Overall I think you're about twice as likely to get hit by paying now.
How bad it is to get hit? Our gammon chances go down but they're still very good.
The other thing to consider is that it's generally better to bring in checkers to the points in front of the anchor than to dump checkers behind the anchor. 11/6 11/5 scores very well on this account whereas 11/6 7/1 or 11/5 7/2 doesn't score so well. I think 11/6 11/5 wins more backgammons.
After all that I'm not sure but I'll try 11/6 11/5. If this is correct then I think that the extra backgammon wins are important. At a score where backgammons don't count I think that playing safe is better since the gammon is pretty much assured if you don't get hit.
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