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BGonline.org Forums
Thoughts OTB
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: -4-2 cube action vs UBK (neilkaz)
Date: Wednesday, 6 July 2011, at 3:41 a.m.
I took a bit of time here but not much. From a technical standpoint it doesn't take very much to have a proper cube at this perverse score.
Here, I was sure that I was somewhat of a game underdog, but felt that I'd lose or win at least 20% gammons (that means 20%+ of 100% (all games) rather than having 20% of my wins be gammons (I don't evaluate that way))
AtS I can lose my market by miles with a joker sequence. Per XGR++ 31 or 11 followed by a dance is a 1.75 pass and of course 22/dance loses not only the market by the entire supermarket chain.
Therefore I cubed and of course it is important to note that it renders any G's I will lose due to aggressive play or bad dice irrelevent.
I'd not have cubed any non-giant (and not a few giants for that matter) here and wouldn't have cubed Bob had I felt he'd been playing poorly or heading for time trouble.
A problem with cubing here is that after the snap-take there's no future chance for my opp to make a cube error. However, many who think that they wouldn't cube here as they are sure that they are better than their opps don't take into account the fact that after D/T they can no longer make a cube error as well in this match.
With G's being as valuable as wins/losses after cubing I think Bob would have a clear drop after my 41K-dance with both (double hit better than 13/9 since I can easily lose a battle of primes).
A difficult decision and 5 or so years ago, I used to win more by not cubing here but then after a real good sequence when I'd spend 30 to 60 seconds contemplating whether I was now TG AtS I'd get a few 1.6 takes !! Players are better now..well at least the ones I end up playing when it counts.
I'll post RO tomorrow in case a couple more responses show up.
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