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Duplication is overrated...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 7 July 2011, at 10:10 p.m.

In Response To: Duplication is overrated... (Carlo Melzi)

Since we have a much stronger board and Black has an awkward position, I think we should play so as to maximize our chances of getting a shot, and then secondarily, minimize our opponent's shots.

Maximizing our chances of getting a shot generally means staying back. However, here it seems that 16/13 reduces our chances of getting that checker hit while retaining a direct shot if Black moves a single checker from the midpoint. (After 16/13, if Black rolls 52, then Black could clear the midpoint without leaving a direct shot, whereas that option is unavailable if Yellow leaves the 16pt checker where it is; however, with a 52, I suspect Black will play from the 8pt anyway.) So 16/13 looks like a good 3. Similarly, it's worth looking at 21/20 to see if that reduces shots on us without reducing shots on our opponent. I don't think it does, so my full play is 16/13 7/6.

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