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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 8 July 2011, at 3:30 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

A couple good rules of thumb for doubling as the trailer when the oppt is 2a: 1)Doubling is probably correct if you have 3 or 4 market losers in 36 and if you're within 8% of the leader's gammon-adjusted takepoint. 2) If you have more than 3 or 4 market losers, you can double even sooner. So if the leader's gammon-adjusted takepoint is 30% and you can find 3 or 4 market losers and you think your winning chances are at least 62%, you should probably double. If you have more than 3 or 4 market losers, you can double with even lower winning chances.

ATS, my OTB estimate was that XG needed around 21% plus 60% of my gammons to take. I guessed the latter was around 15% so it's takepoint was around 30%. If I only had a few market losers, I would need to have around 62% to double and I surely don't have that. But I've got more than 3 or 4 market losers...hit/dance is 7.7/36 so I can double with less than 62% winning chances. How much less? I wasn't sure but since 7.7 is roughly the double of 3 or 4, maybe I could double if I was 8 x 2 away from XG's takepoint. I didn't think I was a 54/46 favorite here so I took a roll. The RO shows that it's a close ND so almost any improvement in my position makes it a cube.

BTW, this "3 or 4 market losers in 36 and within 8% of the oppt's gammon-adjusted takepoint" rule also works pretty well when you're way behind in the score even if the oppt isn't 2a.

is Player 2

score: 11
pip: 99
13 point match
pip: 120
score: 5

is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBCb-----B----cc-dbaB-:0:0:1:00:5:11:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 45.72% (G:16.20% B:0.39%) 45.50% (G:16.65% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 54.28% (G:12.10% B:0.60%) 54.50% (G:11.78% B:0.93%)
Cubeless Equities -0.108 +0.023
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.049±0.009 (+0.039..+0.058)
Double/Take:+0.023 (-0.025)±0.012 (+0.012..+0.035)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.951)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.169.beta, MET: Kazaross XG2

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