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41S-41K-2-44

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 8 July 2011, at 7:10 p.m.

In Response To: 41S-41K-62-44? (John O'Hagan)


2O ' ' ' '5X '3X1X ' '5O

1O1X ' ' '4O '3O ' ' '4X

41S-41K-2-44


I see two very different strong candidate plays:

    A (Attack, 8/4(2) 6/2*(2))
    B (Both, 24/16* 13/9(2))

B is more balanced and looks more natural, and is surely the best play at DMP. It's a question of whether A wins enough gammons to make up for its shortcoming of all-out overextendedness.

IMO, it does; that is, I like A. Off the top, White fans on 9 numbers, giving Blue what must be a cash or near-cash. If White enters with a lone 5 or 3 (12 numbers), Blue can hit a third checker (16pt) with 4 numbers, make a four-point board with 10 numbers, 4, 5 or 6 of which will re-hit the second checker in the process.

Moreover, Blue can keep the blitz strongly alive by breaking the 6pt or 4pt with 41 32 or 21, hitting and covering the 1pt (or he can shift on 11). I believe these additional shifting possibilities put A over the top.

Even if White enters one checker while hitting with a 1 (6 numbers), Blue has a good chance to gain time to build his offense by hitting the checker on the 16pt. Only 7 White numbers (51 31 55 33 11) are truly regrettable for Blue.

Nack

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