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Match analyzing paradox

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 9 July 2011, at 5:50 a.m.

In Response To: Match analyzing paradox (Stein Kulseth)

Everyone had good comments.

It can be thought of as regresion to the mean. If there is a play A far away from play B, it might really be that far away. Or it might be closer and randomness made it look further away. It could have actually been further away and randomness made it closer but that is less likely.

For the plays in which A is better than B by a lot there will probably be no change to the error rate. For plays in which A is less than B by a lot the change in error is likely to benefit you.

As an experiment go and look at every .1 or greater error you made. Change the seed for the RO and look at the error again. On average it will likely be less.

Messages In This Thread

• Match analyzing paradox
  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 6 July 2011, at 5:33 p.m.
  • Match analyzing paradox
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 6 July 2011, at 6:11 p.m.
    • Match analyzing paradox
      Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 7 July 2011, at 2:34 a.m.
  • Match analyzing paradox
    Stein Kulseth -- Wednesday, 6 July 2011, at 7:23 p.m.
    • Match analyzing paradox
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 9 July 2011, at 5:50 a.m.
  • Match analyzing paradox
    Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 6 July 2011, at 8:10 p.m.