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BGonline.org Forums
Familiar Incongruity (LONG)
Posted By: Mr Majestyk In Response To: Peever Double Whopper (Timothy Chow)
Date: Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 12:50 p.m.
Otb I'd play 13/11 8/5
"If we do hit, then the candidates seem to be 22/20 8/5* and 13/11 8/5*. 13/11 cleans up a blot, while 22/20 prepares to either escape the straggler, or anchor on the 20pt if we're hit. Again I like 13/11 better".
Something that Neil commented on in response to your "achilles heel" post I find most interesting. He said something like: "your reasoning should have led you to the correct decision". I see you have done the same thing here but this time your not alone! Neil went on to say that he 'anaylzes his reasoning whenever he makes mistakes'. I'm not sure in which direction I want to take this post; maybe that's for someone else to ponder, I know I will!
Ironically, your analysis (above) is so good that you've turned your nose up at it, lol. I mean you've disregarded what I now believe to be the best play but wouldn't have seen it had you not posted your analysis, lol. That's the part that's fascinating!!!!!
...'22/20 prepares to either escape the straggler, or anchor on the 20pt...'.
'Chess with the cube'! If we get doubled sometime in the future and lose a gammon, then there'll be overage which, indicate the leaders GV on a 1 cube is higher! If we escape then opp's chances of a gammon diminish while ours increases. If we're hit and anchor on the 20, then a holding game kills a lot of Gammons but we'll maintain our forward threat and gammon chances too! This gives us 2 plans of winning and reducing the gammon threat which, in so many words your analysis suggests. So why the change of heart? Maybe you've given more weight for the threat against us than for us. Ironically even further are your comments in response to Pontiac's 21 position - fascinating!!! You said something like: 'if your chances of winning are slim in any case then, you shouldn't worry about the shots against you but look to gain extra shots for you - something like that...but my point is significant.
...'22/20 prepares to either escape the straggler, or anchor on the 20pt...'.
I didn't see this but I believe if you had elaborated further in your analysis you would have! Interesting!! Analysis by paralysis...but without all the facts how can one make an informed decision? A search for balance is the obvious answer but how?
I look forward to your response. Who knows, we might learn something very important!
NBM
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