Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Racing Redouble (RobertFontaine)
Date: Sunday, 18 March 2012, at 9:50 p.m.
In Response To: Racing Redouble (RobertFontaine)
Opp's takepoint is right at 2/3 (risk 25 out of 75 available).
Ward says White gets 6 pip added (4 X 1 for each checker on 2-point over two; add 1 for empty 4-point and 1 for empty acepoint). Blue also gets 6 added: 2 X 1 for the extras on the 2-point and 1 X 2 for the extra on the acepoint; then 2 for having one less checker borne off.
OK so 44 to 46; now call Kleinman: (difference + 4) / sqrt(sum - 4) = 6/sqrt(86) = 6/9.28 ~ (just under) 2/3. Now multiply that by 27% and add 50% giving ~67% GWC for Blue.
Close on the take but not on the redouble.
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