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Lowest Win % Correct Double in moneygame

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Friday, 8 June 2018, at 8:59 p.m.

In Response To: Lowest Win % Correct Double in moneygame (Bob Koca)

That's fun. Let me try.

How often does the opp succeed in rolling the prime home, reaching the closeout? My wild guess would be 90%.

If closed out, we still retain probably about 7% wins with 1 off (it would be 5% with opp's good distribution, but I don't think he will reach good distribution often when rolling the prime).

That gives us about 17% wins.

If we manage to hop the rolling prime at some point, I'd guess we win mostly a gammon and close to no backgammons. So out of our 17% wins, maybe 9% are gammons and the other 8% single. That gives a dead cube eq of .09 x 4 + .08 x 2 - .83 x 2 = -1.14.

In regular positions, recube vig is worth about .2 eq acc. to my experience. Here, I think we will have good amount of opportunities to use the cube, so I'd just use the same value.

-1.14 + .2 is a bit over -1, so it actually might be a close take (if my assumptions are anywhere near our level of reality).

And then there's still an immediate missing [66] for the opponent, which is 2.8% games giving us some additional backgammons on a higher cube level (since we'd redouble again).

Oh hey, now it's a clear take at maybe about -.9 eq!

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