This rollout still leaves me with questions
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: This rollout still leaves me with questions (David Levy)
Date: Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 8:53 p.m.
In Response To: This rollout still leaves me with questions (David Levy)
Jim notes that "White doesn’t want to get hit." That thought led me to the eighth (!) best play 9/7* 10/8 10/6, leaving 4 shots. Note that the top three plays all slot the five point. Note that the third best play slots BOTH the 5 and 4 points! I'm missing something--the extra shots don't seem to be worth it.
I believe that 9/7* 8/4 7/5 does well against safer (but weaker) plays because it has a higher win rate (28.70% vs 24.72% when comparing to 10/8 10/6 9/7*), and that more than compensates it for the extra backgammon losses (3.25% vs 0.85%). At this c7 score, all those gammons (39.39% vs 22.45%) cost only a free drop.
According to XGR++, at this score 9/7* 8/4 7/5 is third best and -.038 (or -.041 rolled out), compared to 10/8 10/6 9/7* being -.051 (or -.071 rolled out). For money (put cube on Blue's side), where all those gammons really hurt, 9/7* 8/4 7/5 is twelfth best and -.141, compared to 10/8 10/6 9/7* being third best and -.037.
Messages In This Thread
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.