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Shuffle Chess / Fischerandom / Chess960

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 11 December 2018, at 1:37 a.m.

In Response To: Shuffle Chess / Fischerandom / Chess960 (Nack Ballard)

I wasn't aware of the engine-vs-engine stats; that's interesting.

Presumably there were no endgame tablebases, although I suspect that that doesn't make much difference.

An important statistic, which I'm not sure is available, is the draw rate for engine-vs-engine play with the opening books turned off. If that is also around 21% then that would be strong evidence that it's the opening books that are responsible for the difference, rather than the "character" of the game being different.

I can't remember now where I found the statistics about top-level human play. In any case, I think that the human statistics are still preliminary (i.e., not enough data for the confidence intervals to be small). However, I don't have the same intuition as you do about blunders necessarily being more common in Chess960. That will certainly be true at first as players have to adjust to unfamiliar setups and learn some opening traps the hard way. But after an initial adjustment period, I don't see a compelling reason for the blunder rate to stay high. The blunders will come sooner and decisive games will be shorter, but that's not the same as the overall blunder rate increasing.

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