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Cube Problem

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 23 May 2007, at 10:19 p.m.

In Response To: Cube Problem (pekfrench)

Take looks easy so how about the double? Blue's best sequence is hit+dance. How bad is White then? Blue will lead by an average of 4 pips, accounting for Blue's average hitting roll of 6 pips and White's loss of 11 pips from getting hit. Thus on average White will have what appears to be a small pass on Blue's best sequences. Some will be bigger losses but the hit+dance only occurs about 1/4 of the time so there can't be many big market losers.

If that is right then Blue shouldn't double.

Last question (since it's a money game): does White have a beaver?

Blue is 60::40 to hit. If Blue won every hit and White won every miss (and there were no possible gammons) then White would be a bit short of a beaver. (Beaver point is around 57% Blue wins under these constrained conditions.) Removing the assumptions shouldn't change the 60:40 much, I don't think. (Guess, with White owning the cube, Blue wins 2/3 on his hits and White wins 5/8 of the misses. That seems to make Blue's winning chances a bit higher than 60%, although Blue seems to have a somewhat higher gammon fraction.)

Bottom line: N+T (no B).

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