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Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 24 June 2007, at 1:54 a.m.

In Response To: Crawford Backgame (Ian Dunstan)

Looks close for 2nd, but not for 1st.

It's the backgammons. Note the hitting plays do as well (actually a bit better, within uncertainty) as the 24/23 play. But at this score the fraction extra wins isn't enough to overcome the BG losses.

The score (after 0 games) is: JellyFish 4, Player2 10 (match to 11 points, Crawford game)

Move number 5: Player2 to play 41


2O1O2O2X2X3X2X ' '1X2X2O

 ' ' '1O2O4O1X1O ' ' '2X

Pip counts: JellyFish 126, Player2 187
Position ID: 2G40gwBoTzCANQ Match ID: 8AlmAUAAUAAA

• Player2 moves 8/7*/3

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/23 8/4 -0.3808
0.33160.06100.0078-0.66840.32250.0117 -0.3807
0.00270.00480.0018-0.00270.00340.0016 0.0060
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1056 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062309141 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 8/7*/3 -0.4121 ( -0.0314)
0.33720.04640.0098-0.66280.41060.0373 -0.4121
0.00290.00210.0013-0.00290.00330.0023 0.0069
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2961 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062309141 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 23/22 8/4 -0.4194 (0.0387)
0.31750.05790.0081-0.68250.33240.0187 -0.4194
0.00270.00430.0022-0.00270.00350.0019 0.0063
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1056 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062309141 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R 8/7* 6/2 -0.4231 ( -0.0424)
0.33810.04470.0061-0.66190.42730.0457 -0.4231
0.00350.00230.0009-0.00350.00410.0037 0.0098
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2961 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062309141 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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