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THEN see this RO

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 9 January 2011, at 6:41 a.m.

In Response To: FIRST see Simborg problem with RO and Stick's analysis (Chuck Bower)

"A little knowledge is a dangerous thing." Reference positions alone (i.e., without quantitative adjustment algorithms) aren't worth the paper they're printed on.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 195
unlimited session
pip: 149
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--bcBBC-B---cD---b-cbA--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 62.24% (G: 28.41% B: 2.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.76% (G: 7.07% B: 0.33%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.38% (G: 28.61% B: 2.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.62% (G: 7.23% B: 0.36%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.476
Double:+0.957
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.704
Double/Take:+0.645 (-0.059)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.296)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3246638
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.039 (+0.665...+0.744)
Confidence Double: ± 0.044 (+0.602...+0.689)
Double Decision confidence: 97.5%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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