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Bearoff cube decision

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 9 August 2007, at 5:43 p.m.

In Response To: Bearoff cube decision (DC-Ohio)

From White's PoV, pass for 35%. Take and win for 84.5%. Take and lose for 15.5%. 19.5/69.0 = 20/70 (close enough) or 28% without recube vig. 84.5% of 28% is about 24% with perfect cube efficiency so call it 25-26% with real cube efficiency.

Ward adds one to Blue's pipcount (third checker on 2-point) and three to White's pipcount (3rd, 4th, 5th on 2-point). I add 0.5 to White because of one more on the 6- than the 5-point. So it's 35--36.5. Now it's Kleinman's turn. Subtract 4 from roller's pipcount: 31--36.5. Now compute diff/sqrt(sum) = 5.5/sqrt(67.5) = 5.5/8.2 = 11/16.4 = 55/82 = 110/165 = 10/15 = 2/3. Roller's cubeless game winning chance is 0.50 + (2/3)*0.27 or about 68%.

In races with several rolls to go (like this one) at scores which don't lead to imminent endings (again valid here) you want to be about 4-5% from the drop/take point for an initial double and 2-3% from the drop/take point for a redouble. We already calculated the drop/take point as 74-75% so redouble at 72-72.5% cgwc. This looks to be a couple pips (4% and a pip is worth ~2%) shy of a redouble.

N+T by my calculation.

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