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Chuck/ZEUS

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 10 November 2008, at 10:47 p.m.

In Response To: Chuck/ZEUS (Coolrey)

Assuming your opponent will double you in in the first position next roll if you don't double here, it is a big mistake (blunderiffic) to wait--in what would be a very clear money beaver (GNU says Blue's equity is -.740 after D/T, so it is getting close to being a correct drop of the beaver). Losing your market is very very bad.

In the second position, only 44 is a market loser. Blue is the clear underdog, but waiting is a small error.

In practice, it's not clear if I would double the first position or not, since if my opponent has let me get to this point he may have just forgotten about the cube altogether and assumed it was DMP.

I would not double the second position playing some donk who won't double me next roll. However, I don't think this position is impossible to reach by perfect or close-to-perfect cube play; suppose Blue just rolled 44, played 13/9(2) 8/4*(2) (24/20(2) 8/4*(2) is probably clearly better, but you get the idea), White responded with 55 from the bar, played B/20 9/4(2) 13/8. If I'm playing Neil I'd double.

Never has the game been played when each side, at his turn, can correctly determine that he is the underdog. So, I guess I am disagreeing with what you just said, bro.

This situation will not arise often but I do not think it is mathematically impossible.

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