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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 14 December 2009, at 11:32 p.m.

In Response To: Money play cube action (Timothy Chow)

Over the board, I thought this was a clear take. The position is deceptively placid. There is no raging attack; there is no direct shot; there are only eight checkers in the zone; White has not yet split the back checkers. But evidently, with two outfield blots, no new points, unsplit back checkers, and a strong 4-prime to contend with, Blue is already in serious trouble. The rollout indicates that it's a clear drop.

Even so, I find it psychologically difficult to give this up when there is still so much play left. But even against moderately strong opposition, it is probably not a good idea to take. White's game is relatively easy to play, and it is Blue who will have to make a lot of tough decisions. OTB, I wound up holding a deuce-point anchor against a 5-prime, and White had a bar-point anchor to clear. I got a shot when White was forced off the anchor, but missed it and had to be content with saving the gammon.

gnubg	157
tchow	161
Position ID: 4HPJATDYNvABMA Match ID: MAEAAAAAAAAA

• gnubg doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.619
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.038	+0.038
3.	No double	+0.898	-0.102
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.716 0.246 0.018 - 0.284 0.074 0.002 +0.619 +0.898 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.010 Player tchow owns 2-cube 0.714 0.251 0.020 - 0.286 0.070 0.002 +1.253 +1.038 Standard error 0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.013 0.016
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 839087900 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Money play cube action
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 3:39 a.m.
  • Money play cube action
    Carter Mattig -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 3:46 a.m.
    • Money play cube action
      neilkaz -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 3:53 a.m.
      • Money play cube action
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 4:21 a.m.
        • Money play cube action
          Carter Mattig -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 10:15 p.m.
  • Money play cube action
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 4:13 a.m.
  • Money play cube action
    Keene -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 5:26 a.m.
    • Money play cube action
      adambulldog -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 5:34 a.m.
      • Money play cube action
        Keene -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 6:28 a.m.
        • Money play cube action
          adambulldog -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 6:31 a.m.
  • Money play cube action
    lenny -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 6:43 a.m.
  • Money play cube action
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 4:35 p.m.
  • Money play cube action
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 9:19 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 11:32 p.m.
    • Rollout
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 12:00 a.m.
      • Rollout
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 12:05 a.m.