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Correct strategy for "best of three" format

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 15 October 2010, at 3:43 a.m.

In Response To: Correct strategy for "best of three" format (Michael Petch)

With best play your chance of winning the second match is, to keep it simple, 50% against an equal opponent -- best play being that which maximizes your match winning chance which is, against this equal opponent, 50%. Which means your chance of winning the set (having won the first match) is 50% + (50%*50%) = 75%. Is there some strategy that can increase your match winning chance? No; there's nothing better than best play. Is there a strategy that can decrease your match winning chance? Of course. But (50-X%) + (50-X%)*(50-X%) will be less than 75%, not more. So, ignore the result of the first match. Which is probably what you suspected was correct, anyway.

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