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OLM We 11/02/11

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 3 November 2011, at 2:12 a.m.

In Response To: OLM We 11/02/11 (Jason Lee)

Candidate plays:
  • Pre-clear the 6pt: 6/5, 6/4
  • Shift the spare: 5/2
  • Hit: 4/1*
It is hard to win a gammon against the 3pt holding game. Even up by 45 pips, as we are in this position, our rate of gammon victories must be in the single digit range. I'll guess the number might actually go down if we hit. That's because 30% of the time, White will hit the return, and put us on the roof with a 44% chance to dance. Of course, we would also be 30% to hit from the roof, so perhaps these two effects wash. If we had the bar point, I would hit in a flash, but not here.

Pre-clearing the 6pt leaves a double gap. Afterwards, 15, 16, 24, 25, 35, 45, and 56 (14 rolls) leave a shot next time. Shifting a spare down to the 2pt is only marginally safer. It leaves a shot on 15, 16, 25, 35, 45, and 56 (12 rolls), with 24 becoming a number that clears the 8pt. When it works, pre-clearing leads to an easier bear-off. Is it worth the extra risk (5.5%)?

I don't have clue! But I'll guess the plays are close.

My vote: 5/2

Mike

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