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XG rollout settings

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Thursday, 29 December 2011, at 6:24 p.m.

In Response To: XG rollout settings (Ray Kershaw)

Have a few games going to large cube value will not affect the rollout final value in the long run. It will however affect the variance of the results.

On a short RO if a game reach a high cube your equity will be probably be off (the CI will reflect that) but it can be equally too high or too low.

From the different test I checked, if the games were truncated after the cube is turned 4 times the variance will be about 1.02 smaller (1.03 smaller if truncating after 3 cubes).

Now, setting a maximum cube to 16 form instance is different than truncating after 4 cube as the game is still played on at this time with no cube in use. doing so can distord the results.

Conclusion: if you want to roll unlimited game position keep the setting to the max (1024).

There can be value of adding a truncation after N cubes (N>=3), but it's not huge.

NOTE: Here is on a short simulation (35K games) from the starting position (jacoby on) the final result is distributed:
1 pt 32.01%
2 pts 40.99%
4 pts 22.91%
6 pts 0.86%
8 pts 2.82%
12 pts 0.069%
16 pts 0.315%
24 pts 0.003%
32 pts 0.024%

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